A Peek into the 7th ASEAN Energy Outlook Development

The ASEAN-German Energy Programme (AGEP) once again supports the development of the 7th ASEAN Energy Outlook (AEO7), a flagship publication of the ASEAN Member States through the ASEAN Centre for Energy (ACE). This document allows ACE to become a regional knowledge hub, think tank, and energy cooperation catalyst. Expected to be launched in November 2022 at the 40th annual ASEAN Ministers on Energy Meeting (AMEM) hosted by Cambodia, AEO7 explores the demand and future development of the region’s energy landscape considering the key trends and policy direction.

The currently developed outlook aims at establishing a stronger role of ACE and AMS Working Groups in terms of data processing and modeling approaches. Some of the modeling upgrades from the previous edition include the bottom-up demand projection for the commercial and industry sector and the least-cost optimisation of the power sector.

To start the development of the AEO7, a Kick-off Meeting was held virtually on 1 September 2021, which was attended by data experts and focal points from ASEAN Member States (AMS). The main objective of the event is to consult with AMS on scenarios development, and data collection and processing which would serve as a ground for future collaboration between ACE and the AMS for the next part of the project which are the Workshops and Country Visits.

The 1st Workshop for the AEO7 took place on 23-25 November 2021. The event aims to present updates on scenario development, modelling works, and the general assumptions considering the insights from the previous Kick-off/ Inception Meeting and the concluded Capacity Building on Low Emissions Analysis Platform (LEAP) under Ir. Cecilya Laksmiwati Malik from 24 August to 25 October 2021. The LEAP training, supported by AGEP, was participated by around 15 AEO7 team members from both ACE and GIZ.

The AEO7 team is currently working on follow-ups on available data from AMS, exploration of alternative data sources, reshaping and strengthening the modeling scenarios, and updating the AEO model with the latest available data and assumptions. The team is joined by Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI) as their main consultant. SEI developed Low Emissions Analysis Platform (LEAP), the tool used in the AEO6 and now in the AEO7.

The team looks forward to Country Visits which is expected to commence in mid February this year. Due to COVID-19 restrictions, the discussions are tentatively set as hybrid format in contrary to face-to-face country visits arrangement in the previous AEOs. The purpose of the event is to bring the first batch of results from AEO7 modeling works​, finalize data gaps, and modeling approach and assumptions. Following that, is the 2nd Workshop is set at the end of March 2022 which focuses mainly on the discussion of the modelling results with AMS focal points.

Another exciting thing to look out for in this current AEO7 is the training for the AMS by the AEO7 team, around March or April. In this training, member states will be given lectures and exercises on how their data is being processed and used in the AEO7 model. The objective of the training is to strengthen the understanding of the AMS on the methodologies of the AEO development to improve the alignment of the national policies to the regional targets. (MW/AD/JM)

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